When China introduced its one-child policy in 1980, it was seen as a bold but necessary step to control its growing population. Now, over forty years later, the same country is offering parents cash subsidies of up to $14,000 per child in some regions to encourage them to have more children. This shift shows how the logic of population and economics has forced China to reverse its old policy in order to protect its future. It also serves as a warning and a timely lesson for India, which now holds the title of the world’s most populous country.
China’s Population Challenge
China’s population has been shrinking for the past three years. In 2023, it lost its top position to India by recording only 9.54 million births, the lowest since 1949. According to the United Nations, China’s population could fall from 1.4 billion to 800 million by the year 2100. This drop would reduce the workforce and place heavy pressure on the pension and healthcare systems for the elderly.
There are several reasons behind this crisis. The one-child policy lasted for decades. Along with that, rising education and living costs, late marriages, career goals, and limited urban housing have made young couples avoid having children. Even after the policy was relaxed in 2016 and couples were allowed two or even three children, the number of births kept falling.
Now China is rushing to fix the situation. More than 20 provinces have started offering childcare subsidies. Some cities are giving parents thousands of dollars for each newborn. However, it is still unclear whether money can undo years of cultural and economic change.
India at a Turning Point
India is at a different stage but facing a similar concern. With a population of over 1.4 billion and a median age of just over 28, India has a young and energetic population. This is a rare advantage compared to ageing countries like Japan, Germany, and now China. But this opportunity will not last forever. The United Nations says India’s fertility rate is around 2.0, which is close to the replacement level.
This means India has a short window to act. If it fails to give good education, jobs, and healthcare to its young people, the population advantage could turn into a serious problem. A large group of young people without jobs or a secure future can create unrest and economic pressure.
At the same time, India must not repeat China’s mistake. In some states, strict population control is often promoted for political gain. But going too far with such measures may cause long-term harm and lead to a similar crisis of falling birth rates.
What Can India Learn from China?
- Think Ahead, Not Just React: China’s one-child policy did slow down population growth. But it did not consider the long-term effects. India must look beyond short-term goals and make smart plans that support healthy population growth over time.
- Support People, Don’t Force Them: Family planning should be a personal choice, not a rule. Giving more women access to education, good health, and proper family planning tools works better than forcing people to follow limits.
- Give Smart Incentives, Not Quick Fixes: If India’s birth rate drops too low in the future, there may be pressure to offer cash rewards like China. But giving money alone will not help if people still worry about jobs, parenting costs, and school quality. These problems must be solved first.
- Prepare for an Ageing Society: China is now facing the challenge of caring for a large number of elderly people. India must start building strong pension, insurance, and elder care systems before this problem arrives.
- Make Plans Based on Each Region: Fertility rates in India are not the same everywhere. States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have lower birth rates, while parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have higher ones. One single rule will not work for the whole country. Local problems need local solutions.
The Future Depends on Our Choices
China’s journey from strict birth limits to generous baby bonuses shows what happens when population policies ignore the future. What was once praised as success has now turned into a serious challenge. India must not swing between extremes.
Instead of just counting people, India should focus on building skills and improving lives. Better education, more jobs, equal chances for women, and strong healthcare are what truly shape a nation’s strength.
It is not just about how many people we have. It is about how we help them grow and succeed. That is the real way to shape the future of our country.
The choice is clear. Either we can rise by making smart use of our population or we can fall by repeating mistakes already made.
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