The world could soon witness the return of La Niña, the cooling weather phenomenon that often reshapes global climate patterns. According to the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a significant chance that La Niña will re-emerge between September and November 2025. Yet even with its cooling effect, scientists caution that temperatures will remain higher than normal.
La Niña is not new to our planet. It is a naturally occurring process that cools sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This shift influences winds, rainfall, and pressure systems worldwide. In contrast, its twin, El Niño, warms the same waters and often creates the opposite effect. The two phenomena oscillate in cycles, with occasional periods of neutrality in between.
The WMO noted that neutral conditions have been in place since March after a brief spell of weak La Niña. For the months of September to November, there is a 55 percent chance that the Pacific will cool again to La Niña levels. This probability increases to 60 percent for October through December. The agency added that the likelihood of El Niño returning during this period is minimal.
The global impacts of La Niña are complex. In tropical regions, it often brings cooler waters that can trigger heavy rainfall and flooding. At the same time, other areas may experience drought due to changes in atmospheric circulation. The last major La Niña, stretching from 2020 to 2023, was unusually long and became the first triple-dip La Niña of this century. It was only the third of its kind since 1950. This event intensified both droughts and floods across the globe, reminding humanity of the disruptive force of shifting oceans.
Despite its reputation as a cooling event, La Niña has not been strong enough to halt the relentless march of global warming. The past decade has been the hottest ever recorded. Even when El Niño faded in 2024, global temperatures stayed at record or near-record highs. Scientists now say 2024 has taken the title of the hottest year in history.
This reality underscores a sobering truth, while natural climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña play important roles in shaping weather, they operate within a broader system already destabilized by human-driven climate change. Cooling episodes may offer temporary regional relief, but they no longer shield the planet from the rising baseline of heat.
The return of La Niña later this year would mean significant changes for farmers, fishers, and communities vulnerable to floods and droughts. But the broader picture remains one of persistent warming, which makes adaptation strategies even more urgent. As scientists stress, the world cannot depend on natural oscillations to rescue it from the heat. Instead, it must prepare for a climate where even cooling cycles occur against a backdrop of record-breaking temperatures.
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