The outcome of the recent Bihar Assembly elections was less a political shift and more a decisive rejection of the past. For the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and its young leader, Tejashwi Yadav, what started as a wave of momentum—fueled by anti-incumbency and promises of change—crashed violently against the solid, dual engine of the NDA. The RJD’s stunning loss, which saw its seat tally plummet to one of its lowest in a decade, demands an immediate, unflinching analysis. The party didn't just lose; it failed to break the structural constraints that have defined its politics for the last two decades.
The Haunting of ‘Jungle Raj’
The first and most potent factor in the RJD's failure was the NDA’s highly successful re-weaponization of the "jungle raj" narrative. This term, used to evoke the memory of alleged lawlessness and corruption during Lalu Prasad Yadav’s era, is no longer a niche, upper-caste smear. It has evolved into a broader anxiety about instability and disorder that cuts across the electorate.
For many non-Yadav communities, particularly the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Mahadalits, the memory of political chaos proved more compelling than the promise of a radical new future. The NDA, led by the experienced administrative hand of Nitish Kumar and anchored by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image of decisiveness, presented a clear, shorter message: Stability and Safety. Tejashwi Yadav, as the political heir, was forced into a defensive crouch, spending valuable campaign time denying the past rather than purely articulating his vision for the future. The simple promise of order and continuity, juxtaposed against the spectre of anarchy, won the trust of the median voter.
The Decisive Power of the ‘Mahila’ Vote
Perhaps the most significant strategic miscalculation by the RJD was its inability to cultivate the rapidly maturing female electorate as a horizontal voting bloc. While Tejashwi’s " jobs" promise resonated with the youth, it was successfully countered by the NDA’s clear focus on welfare schemes tailored for women.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s focus on empowerment—from reservations in Panchayati Raj institutions to the launch of the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, which offered direct financial support to women entrepreneurs—created a tangible, reliable beneficiary class. The result was historic: women voters not only turned out in higher numbers than men but overwhelmingly tilted the mandate toward the NDA. They prioritized immediate, reliable welfare and security over the RJD’s ambitious, yet seemingly abstract, employment pledge. In the political language of Bihar, the NDA successfully rebranded the acronym M-Y from ‘Muslim-Yadav’ to ‘Mahila-Yuva’ (Women and Youth), capturing the imagination of a segment RJD had taken for granted.
Alliance Fractures and Social Contraction
Beyond the narrative war, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) suffered from acute organizational and arithmetic flaws. The coalition was visibly disjointed. Seat-sharing remained unresolved late into the campaign, leading to the highly damaging phenomenon of "friendly fights" where MGB partners, notably the Congress, contested against the RJD, splitting the anti-NDA vote. The Congress, in particular, proved to be a consistently weak link, failing to convert its share of seats into meaningful victories.
More critically, the RJD failed to expand its social base. Despite efforts to include smaller parties like the VIP, the MGB remained structurally confined to its core Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) support. The social justice platform, which once propelled Lalu Prasad to power, failed to adequately address the aspirations of EBCs, who continue to be Nitish Kumar’s steadfast base. This contraction was aggravated by the entry of the AIMIM in the Seemanchal region, which successfully chipped away at the Muslim vote bank in those border districts, costing the MGB critical seats.
Tejashwi Yadav has proven his potential to set the agenda, as he did with the jobs promise in 2020. However, the 2025 result is a sobering mandate for internal reform. The RJD cannot regain its dominance by relying solely on the consolidation of its M-Y base. It must structurally broaden its social appeal, address the governance anxiety that still defines the "jungle raj" ghost, and translate its ambitious rhetoric into a credible, cohesive, and cross-community promise of stability and inclusive development. The road to power in Bihar now runs through women and EBCs, and the RJD has yet to find the map.
