Climate change isn't just warming the planet. Scientists warn it may also be creating the next pandemic.
Climate change is often discussed in terms of rising temperatures, melting glaciers, stronger storms, and rising sea levels. However, scientists are increasingly warning that one of its most dangerous consequences may not be visible at all. It could emerge in the form of deadly viruses capable of triggering future pandemics.
The world has already experienced the devastating impact of COVID-19. Since then, outbreaks of diseases such as Nipah virus, Chandipura virus, Mpox, and avian influenza have repeatedly reminded us that infectious diseases remain one of humanity's greatest threats. According to experts and the World Health Organization (WHO), climate change is becoming a major factor that increases the risk of new viral outbreaks. It is no longer just an environmental challenge. It has evolved into a global public health emergency.
This warning has become even more significant as countries prepare for large international events such as the Los Angeles Olympics 2028, where millions of athletes, officials, and spectators from across the world will gather. Global travel can rapidly spread infectious diseases, making climate-driven viruses an international concern rather than a local problem.
A New Era of Pandemics
Despite remarkable advances in vaccines, diagnostic technology, and healthcare systems, the frequency of infectious disease outbreaks has continued to rise. Scientists believe this is not a coincidence.
Science writer Ed Yong describes the present age as the "Pandemicene," an era in which pandemics become increasingly common because of the environmental disruptions caused during the Anthropocene, the period in which human activities have become the dominant force shaping Earth's ecosystems.
Human actions such as deforestation, rapid urbanisation, industrial expansion, and fossil fuel emissions are changing the planet faster than nature can adapt. These changes are also reshaping how viruses circulate between wildlife, livestock, and humans.
How Climate Change Creates New Viral Threats
Climate change affects almost every part of the natural world. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, severe floods, intense heatwaves, and devastating wildfires are forcing animals to abandon their natural habitats in search of food and water.
At the same time, expanding cities, roads, farms, and mining projects continue to destroy forests that once acted as natural barriers between humans and wildlife. As these habitats disappear, animals increasingly come into contact with people and domestic animals.
This growing interaction dramatically raises the risk of zoonotic spillover, a process in which viruses naturally carried by animals jump into humans. Scientists estimate that nearly three-quarters of all newly emerging infectious diseases in humans originate in animals.
Changes in rainfall patterns and shrinking freshwater resources further intensify this problem. Birds, bats, rodents, and other wildlife migrate into new regions where they interact with species they would never normally encounter. These encounters create fresh opportunities for viruses to evolve, exchange genetic material, and infect entirely new hosts.
In other words, climate change is reshaping the global map of infectious diseases.
The Iceberg Study Offers a Disturbing Warning
One of the most influential studies on this subject was led by biologist Colin Carlson and published in the journal Nature.
Using an advanced phylogeographical model, Carlson's research team examined how climate change could alter the movement of mammals across the planet. Their findings suggest that at least 10,000 viruses capable of infecting humans already exist in wildlife, even though most have never been detected.
As global temperatures continue to rise, animals will migrate into unfamiliar territories, creating countless opportunities for these hidden viruses to spread between different species before eventually reaching humans.
Often referred to as the "Iceberg Study," the research estimates that more than 300,000 new encounters between wildlife species could occur during this century. These interactions may increase opportunities for viral transmission by more than 4,000 times compared with current levels.
The researchers warn that many future pandemics may begin not in remote forests but in densely populated regions where wildlife, livestock, and humans increasingly share the same environment.
Lessons from Ebola and COVID-19
Recent history provides powerful examples of how quickly viruses can expand beyond their original habitats.
Ebola, once largely confined to parts of West Africa, has appeared in multiple regions over the years, demonstrating how environmental changes and increased human movement can widen the geographical reach of dangerous pathogens.
The COVID-19 pandemic further illustrated how a virus emerging in one location can spread across the globe within months, overwhelming healthcare systems, disrupting economies, and claiming millions of lives.
Scientists believe that unless environmental degradation is addressed, outbreaks of this scale could become more frequent rather than exceptional.
Why the Paris Climate Goals Matter
The findings of Carlson's study reinforce the importance of achieving the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, while striving to keep it closer to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will not only help slow rising sea levels and extreme weather events but may also reduce the ecological disruptions that allow viruses to spread into new hosts.
Climate policy should therefore be viewed as both an environmental strategy and a long-term investment in global public health.
Final Take
For years, climate discussions have focused mainly on carbon emissions, renewable energy, and melting ice sheets. While these issues remain critical, the growing connection between climate change and infectious diseases deserves equal attention.
Governments must strengthen disease surveillance, invest in wildlife monitoring, protect forests, improve public health systems, and encourage international cooperation on pandemic preparedness. Scientists, policymakers, and health experts increasingly agree that preventing future pandemics begins with protecting the planet itself.
Climate change is no longer simply changing the weather. It is changing the conditions under which viruses evolve, spread, and threaten human life. Recognising this connection may be one of the most important steps humanity can take to reduce the risk of the next global health crisis.
Climate change is often discussed in terms of rising temperatures, melting glaciers, stronger storms, and rising sea levels. However, scientists are increasingly warning that one of its most dangerous consequences may not be visible at all. It could emerge in the form of deadly viruses capable of triggering future pandemics.
The world has already experienced the devastating impact of COVID-19. Since then, outbreaks of diseases such as Nipah virus, Chandipura virus, Mpox, and avian influenza have repeatedly reminded us that infectious diseases remain one of humanity's greatest threats. According to experts and the World Health Organization (WHO), climate change is becoming a major factor that increases the risk of new viral outbreaks. It is no longer just an environmental challenge. It has evolved into a global public health emergency.
This warning has become even more significant as countries prepare for large international events such as the Los Angeles Olympics 2028, where millions of athletes, officials, and spectators from across the world will gather. Global travel can rapidly spread infectious diseases, making climate-driven viruses an international concern rather than a local problem.
A New Era of Pandemics
Despite remarkable advances in vaccines, diagnostic technology, and healthcare systems, the frequency of infectious disease outbreaks has continued to rise. Scientists believe this is not a coincidence.
Science writer Ed Yong describes the present age as the "Pandemicene," an era in which pandemics become increasingly common because of the environmental disruptions caused during the Anthropocene, the period in which human activities have become the dominant force shaping Earth's ecosystems.
Human actions such as deforestation, rapid urbanisation, industrial expansion, and fossil fuel emissions are changing the planet faster than nature can adapt. These changes are also reshaping how viruses circulate between wildlife, livestock, and humans.
How Climate Change Creates New Viral Threats
Climate change affects almost every part of the natural world. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, severe floods, intense heatwaves, and devastating wildfires are forcing animals to abandon their natural habitats in search of food and water.
At the same time, expanding cities, roads, farms, and mining projects continue to destroy forests that once acted as natural barriers between humans and wildlife. As these habitats disappear, animals increasingly come into contact with people and domestic animals.
This growing interaction dramatically raises the risk of zoonotic spillover, a process in which viruses naturally carried by animals jump into humans. Scientists estimate that nearly three-quarters of all newly emerging infectious diseases in humans originate in animals.
Changes in rainfall patterns and shrinking freshwater resources further intensify this problem. Birds, bats, rodents, and other wildlife migrate into new regions where they interact with species they would never normally encounter. These encounters create fresh opportunities for viruses to evolve, exchange genetic material, and infect entirely new hosts.
In other words, climate change is reshaping the global map of infectious diseases.
The Iceberg Study Offers a Disturbing Warning
One of the most influential studies on this subject was led by biologist Colin Carlson and published in the journal Nature.
Using an advanced phylogeographical model, Carlson's research team examined how climate change could alter the movement of mammals across the planet. Their findings suggest that at least 10,000 viruses capable of infecting humans already exist in wildlife, even though most have never been detected.
As global temperatures continue to rise, animals will migrate into unfamiliar territories, creating countless opportunities for these hidden viruses to spread between different species before eventually reaching humans.
Often referred to as the "Iceberg Study," the research estimates that more than 300,000 new encounters between wildlife species could occur during this century. These interactions may increase opportunities for viral transmission by more than 4,000 times compared with current levels.
The researchers warn that many future pandemics may begin not in remote forests but in densely populated regions where wildlife, livestock, and humans increasingly share the same environment.
Lessons from Ebola and COVID-19
Recent history provides powerful examples of how quickly viruses can expand beyond their original habitats.
Ebola, once largely confined to parts of West Africa, has appeared in multiple regions over the years, demonstrating how environmental changes and increased human movement can widen the geographical reach of dangerous pathogens.
The COVID-19 pandemic further illustrated how a virus emerging in one location can spread across the globe within months, overwhelming healthcare systems, disrupting economies, and claiming millions of lives.
Scientists believe that unless environmental degradation is addressed, outbreaks of this scale could become more frequent rather than exceptional.
Why the Paris Climate Goals Matter
The findings of Carlson's study reinforce the importance of achieving the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, while striving to keep it closer to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will not only help slow rising sea levels and extreme weather events but may also reduce the ecological disruptions that allow viruses to spread into new hosts.
Climate policy should therefore be viewed as both an environmental strategy and a long-term investment in global public health.
Final Take
For years, climate discussions have focused mainly on carbon emissions, renewable energy, and melting ice sheets. While these issues remain critical, the growing connection between climate change and infectious diseases deserves equal attention.
Governments must strengthen disease surveillance, invest in wildlife monitoring, protect forests, improve public health systems, and encourage international cooperation on pandemic preparedness. Scientists, policymakers, and health experts increasingly agree that preventing future pandemics begins with protecting the planet itself.
Climate change is no longer simply changing the weather. It is changing the conditions under which viruses evolve, spread, and threaten human life. Recognising this connection may be one of the most important steps humanity can take to reduce the risk of the next global health crisis.
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